An estimation of the human influence on the climate

06/05/2020 12:33 - Posted by Tom van Leeuwen
The month of May has come to an end. Another month of economic paralysis and reduced human CO2 emissions. And again, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere continues to rise to record levels in modern measurements.

It is time to remove the blindfolds and thoroughly analyze the question of the effect of human CO2 emissions on global temperature. I propose to divide the problem into four issues, open for discussion:

1. The influence of humanity on the carbon cycle.
The carbon cycle includes the absorption and respiration of flora and fauna, the oceans and human emissions. These are the three most important factors. The empirical data from the last 3 months (march - may 2020) shows us that the human factor is much less important than we used to think. My estimate: only 10% of the CO2 increase is caused by human emissions.

2. CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
CO2 is one of the greenhouse gases. This means that it has the ability to absorb some frequencies of infrared radiation emitted by the Earth, slowing down its surface cooling. But, taking into account the absorbed electromagnetic frequency bands, their overlap with the water vapor absorption bands, the degree of saturation of their absorption bands and the band broadening (which slightly increases the effect), my estimate is that CO2 is causing only 10% of the total greenhouse effect of the Earth's atmosphere.

3. Water vapor.
The alarmist climate models, recognizing point 2, are largely based on the positive feedback effect of water vapor caused by CO2. They imply that a small change in CO2 causes a big change in the effect for H2O. The problem here is that the same models do not take into account the complexity of the effect of water vapor on the climate. H2O as a greenhouse gas is active in both the infrared and ultraviolet bands. This means that H2O also absorbs radiation from the sun, causing cooling. In addition, water vapor condenses, forming clouds that reflect sunlight, cooling the surface. Therefore, it is not at all clear whether this feedback effect is positive or negative.

4. Other factors.
Looking at broader time scales, no correlation is observed between CO2 and global temperature. Other factors, such as the shape of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, the inclination of the Earth's axis, solar activity, ocean currents,... all have their periodicity and the effects of these cycles are superimposed one on another. The greenhouse effect is, among these predominant factors, a very small factor, especially when the it is mostly saturated, as is the case during the interglacials. After observing the empirical measurements from the past, my estimation is that no more than 10% of the current climate variations is caused by greenhouse gases.

So, my estimation is that the total influence of humanity on the climate is (10% of 10% of 10%) at most 1/1000 part (0.1%) of all factors.

In addition, taking into account the great unknown of point 3 (water vapor, this factor can be positive or negative) we cause between 0.1% heating and 0.1% cooling.

This is my estimate. The IPCC assesses that most of the modern warming is due to human activities. But they never proved that. It's their estimate. I would really like to see their scientific reasoning and replicable experimental proofs to back their claims that I'm off by that far for every one of the four points I've set out in this article.

Conclusion: we urgently need replicable proofs of the following:
1. The impact of human activities on the CO2 concentration
2. The impact of CO2 on the greenhouse effect
3. The impact of variations in water vapor on the average temperature
4. The impact of the greenhouse effect on climate, compared to the other factors.

Until these point have been scientifically determined, all government "climate action" should be suspended.

Tom van Leeuwen, June 4, 2020.


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The fingerprints of the greenhouse effect

The hypothesis of "man-made climate change" tells us that the increase in the concentration of CO2 enhances the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere and has global warming as a final result.

Since the beginning of the industrialized era around 1850, man emits relatively large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere through the use of fossil fuels. The consequence of these emissions is that during that period, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increased sharply from about 300 parts per million to more than 400 ppm, an increase of almost 40%. The average temperature increased in the same period more or less 1.5 °C with a small variation depending on the data source used.

Why did the warming stop?

The political reports of the IPCC are based on the hypothesis that CO2 is the most important control knob of the Earth's temperature. The problem is that this hypothesis does not correspond at all with the empirical data available to science. Forecasts are made using models that are not capable of 'predicting' the past.

Temperature versus CO2 – the big picture

When discussing “Climate Change” it’s good to have an understanding of how the Earth’s climate has changed in the past. That will give us a reference to decide whether the current changes are normal or not.

Global temperatures have varied a lot over the last 500 million years. Depending on the timescale used, the current temperature is either cold or hot, so when you want to know the “normal temperature” you’ll have to indicate what timescale you’re using.

Dutch Warming

In the Netherlands, the day-to-day whether depends heavily on the direction the wind is coming from. Being a small country, the wind direction is quite homogeneous for the whole country, specially on higher altitudes where the bulk of heat convection is taking place.

Due to its geographical position, midway between the icy-cold Arctic to the north, the dry and hot Sahara to the south, the Eurasian land-mass to the east and the Atlantic Ocean to the west, every wind direction comes with unique weather characteristics.

North - cold,
East - dry,
South - warm,
West - wet whether.

Satellite temperature observations

This month of January 2023, the average satellite temperature published, by Dr. Christy and Dr. Spencer (University Alabama Huntsfield) had a negative deviation, compared with the average monthly measures between 1991 and 2000.

Of course, this value does not mean much, it's definition is full of arbitrary begin and endpoints, but anyway it doesn't sound like a lot of warming has taken place over the past 30 years, and even less "catastrophic warming" we're reading about in the Mainstream Media, newspapers and TV stations.

CO2 saturation

This graph is all you need to understand that CO2 is not the Earth's Climate Control Knob.

On the horizontal axis, we see the Infra-red (IR) spectrum wavelengths, that is like "IR colors" were this kind of radiation visible to the human eye.
The vertical axis shows to energy flux, that is the energy emitted by the Earth, as seen from outer space.

The graph itself shows how the Earth's atmosphere filters the IR radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and the role of the various greenhouse gases in that filtering process. The green line is the filter of the Earth's atmosphere without any greenhouse gases.

Video - Who are the real climate deniers?

The climate has shown many fluctuations during the Holocene. The difference between the highest and lowest average temperature of the past 10 thousand years is about 3 °C.

Climate alarmists, led by the IPCC, are trying to deny this, and understandably so. This variation means that without human influence there was climate change as well.

This undermines their hypotheses and often their jobs depend on it.

Climate change seen from a historical perspective.

Satellite Earth temperature February 2022

The satellite temperature departure measurement for February 2022 is exactly 0° C.

This means that Earth temperature during February 2022 was exactly the same as the average from 1991 to 2020.

Satellites are the best way to have insight into the short-term temperature variations. They measure the whole surface, independent of weather station distribution, Heat Islands, measurement failures, surface condition (land or water).

There is a step-wise increase in temperature, triggered by two very strong El Niño events (1998 and 2016.) The energy that welled up from the deep oceans established a new level in these two ocasions, where the warming paused. This is a natural phenomenon and has nothing to do with CO2, or human activity.

Where is the Climate Emergency? It just does not exist.

Wake up and spread this information to your government!

Tom van Leeuwen, March 1st, 2022.