An estimation of the human influence on the climate

06/05/2020 12:33 - Posted by Tom van Leeuwen
The month of May has come to an end. Another month of economic paralysis and reduced human CO2 emissions. And again, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere continues to rise to record levels in modern measurements.

It is time to remove the blindfolds and thoroughly analyze the question of the effect of human CO2 emissions on global temperature. I propose to divide the problem into four issues, open for discussion:

1. The influence of humanity on the carbon cycle.
The carbon cycle includes the absorption and respiration of flora and fauna, the oceans and human emissions. These are the three most important factors. The empirical data from the last 3 months (march - may 2020) shows us that the human factor is much less important than we used to think. My estimate: only 10% of the CO2 increase is caused by human emissions.

2. CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
CO2 is one of the greenhouse gases. This means that it has the ability to absorb some frequencies of infrared radiation emitted by the Earth, slowing down its surface cooling. But, taking into account the absorbed electromagnetic frequency bands, their overlap with the water vapor absorption bands, the degree of saturation of their absorption bands and the band broadening (which slightly increases the effect), my estimate is that CO2 is causing only 10% of the total greenhouse effect of the Earth's atmosphere.

3. Water vapor.
The alarmist climate models, recognizing point 2, are largely based on the positive feedback effect of water vapor caused by CO2. They imply that a small change in CO2 causes a big change in the effect for H2O. The problem here is that the same models do not take into account the complexity of the effect of water vapor on the climate. H2O as a greenhouse gas is active in both the infrared and ultraviolet bands. This means that H2O also absorbs radiation from the sun, causing cooling. In addition, water vapor condenses, forming clouds that reflect sunlight, cooling the surface. Therefore, it is not at all clear whether this feedback effect is positive or negative.

4. Other factors.
Looking at broader time scales, no correlation is observed between CO2 and global temperature. Other factors, such as the shape of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, the inclination of the Earth's axis, solar activity, ocean currents,... all have their periodicity and the effects of these cycles are superimposed one on another. The greenhouse effect is, among these predominant factors, a very small factor, especially when the it is mostly saturated, as is the case during the interglacials. After observing the empirical measurements from the past, my estimation is that no more than 10% of the current climate variations is caused by greenhouse gases.

So, my estimation is that the total influence of humanity on the climate is (10% of 10% of 10%) at most 1/1000 part (0.1%) of all factors.

In addition, taking into account the great unknown of point 3 (water vapor, this factor can be positive or negative) we cause between 0.1% heating and 0.1% cooling.

This is my estimate. The IPCC assesses that most of the modern warming is due to human activities. But they never proved that. It's their estimate. I would really like to see their scientific reasoning and replicable experimental proofs to back their claims that I'm off by that far for every one of the four points I've set out in this article.

Conclusion: we urgently need replicable proofs of the following:
1. The impact of human activities on the CO2 concentration
2. The impact of CO2 on the greenhouse effect
3. The impact of variations in water vapor on the average temperature
4. The impact of the greenhouse effect on climate, compared to the other factors.

Until these point have been scientifically determined, all government "climate action" should be suspended.

Tom van Leeuwen, June 4, 2020.


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The fingerprints of the greenhouse effect

The hypothesis of "man-made climate change" tells us that the increase in the concentration of CO2 enhances the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere and has global warming as a final result.

Since the beginning of the industrialized era around 1850, man emits relatively large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere through the use of fossil fuels. The consequence of these emissions is that during that period, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increased sharply from about 300 parts per million to more than 400 ppm, an increase of almost 40%. The average temperature increased in the same period more or less 1.5 °C with a small variation depending on the data source used.

Why did the warming stop?

The political reports of the IPCC are based on the hypothesis that CO2 is the most important control knob of the Earth's temperature. The problem is that this hypothesis does not correspond at all with the empirical data available to science. Forecasts are made using models that are not capable of 'predicting' the past.

Temperature versus CO2 – the big picture

When discussing “Climate Change” it’s good to have an understanding of how the Earth’s climate has changed in the past. That will give us a reference to decide whether the current changes are normal or not.

Global temperatures have varied a lot over the last 500 million years. Depending on the timescale used, the current temperature is either cold or hot, so when you want to know the “normal temperature” you’ll have to indicate what timescale you’re using.

Sydney Sea-Level Rise

According to the IPCC CO2-hypothesis, rising CO2-levels leads to warming. That warming supposedly expands sea-water and melts glaciers and polar ice-caps, finally resulting in rising sea-levels. They warn us for catastrophic sea-level rises in the year 2100 and beyond because of this process.

Sydney is strategically located between the Indian, Pacific, and Southern oceans. CO2-levels went up from 300 to 400 parts per million over the past 100 years. What's the impact on Sydney's sea-level?

Democracy? Make your choice!

In recent centuries the power of governments has become stronger and stronger. The governments got involved increasingly deeper into our lives and the citizens, the individuals, have ever less to say about ever more issues.

Climate policy is an excellent example of this interference. The government relies on completely unreliable data, unproven hypotheses, and ideas while the consequences of this interference affect everyone. At present, governments worldwide are about to make cheap and reliable energy sources -that form the basis of our economic prosperity- inaccessible. The results are far-reaching.

Censored and kicked by a Facebook group!

Yesterday I decided to post my Four Interglacials to a Facebook group called "Global Warming Denialism is a Big Oil agenda".

It was an educational experience.

About consensus, "97%", and settled science

There are four misconceptions about science that are commonly used by catastrophic man-made warming advocates. Normally, when you try to start a conversation on the subject, their first reply will be one of these four "arguments".

Atmospheric CO2 distribution

On the above world map we see the average level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere over five weeks in 2014. Credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech.